Thursday, August 17, 2006

Fed’s relentless printing of paper money sans asset-backing has landed the dollar in a precarious situation

How about a sneak peak from Pirates of the Caribbean part III? It features Federal Reserve officials as the protagonist pirates, sailing on a battered ship, led by a one-eyed captain, who embark on a serious treasure hunt... a hunt for gold! It may sound like a bad gag, but this could well be what the Feds might be forced to undertake very soon in the near future.

Times, if not changing, are definitely going against the dollar. An increasing number of countries are now cleaning up the greenback from their forex vaults and stuffing it with alternative currencies and assets. Syria recently ended its dollar peg and shift ed its reserves to euro. Similarly, the United Arab Emirates also decided to reallocate its reserves from dollar to euro by as much as 10% of its total reserves. In fact, a summary B&E survey ending July 27th, 2006, considering the share of dollar in the total allocated foreign exchange reserves of all countries, shows that the greenback is now being hastily replaced predominantly by the euro. Since the first quarter of 1999, the total share of dollar has de-escalated from 71.09% to 66.32% by the end of the first quarter of 2006 (preliminary figures). During the same time, the share of euro has increased from 18.13% to 24.79%. Even a comparison of exchange rates (2000 to 2006) shows that the euro has appreciated by a staggering 24% against the dollar.

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